Red Team Analysis

How Lithuania Falls Without a Single Soldier Crossing the Border

Everyone is preparing for a 20th-century invasion. Tanks through the Suwalki Gap. Paratroopers at the airport. But modern warfare has moved on. These scenarios — grounded in real data from Ukraine and the ongoing Iran war — show how Lithuania could be forced into total capitulation using weapons that cost less than a luxury car.

What the Iran War Proves — Day 39

  • 943 Patriot interceptors fired in 4 days — 18 months of production burned in 96 hours
  • US withdrew from UAE. Pulled all Patriots from South Korea. Global interceptor stockpile is near empty.
  • 3 US F-15Es shot down by friendly fire — IFF fails in drone-saturated airspace
  • Iran's decentralized C2 still operational after 39 days of strikes — still firing 15-30 missiles/day
  • $4M Patriot rounds burned on $20K Shaheds — cost ratio 14:1 to 100:1 in attacker's favor
Featured Scenario
Consolidated Scenario90 days

Operation Winter Storm

90 Days to Baltic Capitulation

The unified scenario. French elections remove nuclear deterrence. US interceptors consumed in the Iran war. Russia destroys Lithuania's government and air defense with hypersonic missiles in 4 minutes — Kinzhal at Mach 15, no interception possible. Then 170,000 Shahed drones flatten Vilnius over 17 days. Then 40 days of bombardment reduce the country to rubble. On Day 90, Russia issues an ultimatum: all Baltic states accept occupation — or Riga and Tallinn are next. No soldier crosses the border.

Duration
90 days
Method
Decapitation + mass drone siege + sustained bombardment
Attacker Cost
$7-14B
Endgame
Baltic occupation
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These scenarios are preventable.

Every vulnerability exploited in these scenarios has a concrete, affordable countermeasure. Sovereign deterrence, decentralized command, mass drone defense, energy hardening. The tools exist.

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