Analysis

Lithuanian parliament debated whether the country can defend itself for 'at least one month' without US support. That question reveals the core problem: the entire political class frames defense as survival time before rescue. One month is not a strategy — it's a countdown to capitulation.

• ▸Opposition lawmakers propose Lithuania should be able to defend itself independently for 'at least one month' — framing defense as survival time before rescue
• ▸The government maintains plans exist but are classified — no public debate on actual capability
• ▸The Iran war destroyed the rescue assumption: the US withdrew from the UAE rather than defend it under fire

Three days into the US-Israel campaign against Iran, the war is rewriting core assumptions about modern conflict. The lessons for Lithuania's defense are urgent: interceptor math is broken, GPS denial is real, and decentralization is survival.

• ▸Coalition interceptor stocks depleting 2x faster than planned — 10 days instead of 20
• ▸GPS jamming in the Strait of Hormuz is degrading JDAMs, cruise missiles, and drone ops
• ▸Iran's decentralized C2 survived 3 days of coalition strikes with operational tempo intact