National Sniper and Designated Marksman Program Study

Executive Summary

Russian planning for a Baltic operation banks on seizing ground before NATO reinforces, and Russian infantry companies carry two to three organic snipers. Ukraine's experience since 2022 shows roughly one-third of positional-warfare casualties came from sniper fire, and civilian sport shooters reached combat effectiveness in weeks once formal pathways existed. Lithuania fields about 150 snipers, has no squad designated marksman programme for the 300 to 800 metre range gap, and has no formal precision pathway inside the 17,000-member Lithuanian Riflemen's Union (Šaulių sąjunga), whose armed sections fall under Armed Forces command in wartime. Finland is the direct reference: snipers in every company and designated marksmen in every nine-person squad. The United States Squad Designated Marksman Rifle programme and the EU Military Assistance Mission curriculum converge on the same 600 to 800 metre gap. The recommended next step is a joint Ministry of National Defence and Riflemen's Union feasibility study on force-structure targets, ranges and ammunition, an instructor pipeline, and a civilian pathway. Scale and timeline are for Lithuania.

The Problem

Russian planning for a Baltic operation assumes seizure within 72 to 96 hours, ahead of NATO reinforcement. Russian infantry companies carry two to three organic snipers; spotters, drone operators, and command personnel routinely operate in the 600 to 800 metre band. In Ukraine the Pryvyd composite detachment reported around 1,000 Russian personnel eliminated in the Pokrovsk sector in roughly one year, and a confirmed kill at 4,000 metres on 14 August 2025 used artificial-intelligence-assisted ballistic calculation and drone observation. Baltic weather frequently grounds small drones, leaving precision rifle fire as the only reliable engagement capability beyond rifle range.

Lithuania fields roughly 150 snipers across its land forces (Iron Wolf, Žemaitija, and Aukštaitija brigades, plus six KASP volunteer territorial battalions). Squad designated marksmen with effective fire to 600 metres are absent from most squads. The 17,000-member Šaulių sąjunga (Lithuanian Riflemen's Union, under Ministry of National Defence supervision) has no formal precision marksmanship pathway despite its wartime command relationship with the Armed Forces.

Without action: Enemy spotters, drone operators, and forward observers continue to work in the 300 to 800 metre band where Lithuanian infantry has no answer. The 72 to 96 hour seizure timeline remains achievable. Occupation-phase resistance lacks the distributed precision component that made the Finnish Winter War unsustainable for the Soviet Union.