Why Deterrence: Three Wars, One Decision
Between 1870 and 1940, France was invaded three times by the same neighbor. After the third time, it built a deterrent so powerful that sovereignty was never questioned again. Lithuania has endured the same pattern — with the same neighbor to the east. The logic is identical. Only the technology has changed.
Between 1870 and 1940, France was invaded three times. After the third, it built a deterrent so powerful that sovereignty was never questioned again. Lithuania faces the same pattern — three occupations by the same neighbor, the same existential threat, the same choice to make.
Three Invasions, Then a Decision
Franco-Prussian War
Paris besieged for four months. France loses Alsace-Lorraine — its industrial heartland. 139,000 French dead. The newly unified Germany imposes crushing reparations. France is humiliated.
World War I
1.4 million French dead — 27% of men aged 18–27. Northern France is a moonscape: Verdun, the Somme, Ypres. An entire generation is annihilated. France "wins" but is gutted. Germany remains intact and resentful.
The Fall of France
France falls in six weeks. Four years of occupation follow. 76,000 Jews deported to death camps. The Vichy regime collaborates. The third invasion in 70 years proves that alliances, treaties, and fortifications are insufficient.
The Decision
De Gaulle creates the CEA (Atomic Energy Commission). France tests its first nuclear weapon in 1960. The Force de frappe is born. Defense spending peaks at 5.44% of GDP. Result: 65 years of absolute sovereignty. Germany never invades again — not because of friendship, but because the cost is unthinkable.
The Price of Sovereignty
France's Deterrence Investment
Three Occupations, No Decision Yet
Russian Empire
123 years of occupation. The Lithuanian language is banned. Publishing in Latin script is outlawed. Book smugglers (knygnešiai) risk Siberian exile to preserve the nation’s identity. Russia attempts to erase Lithuania as a concept.
First Soviet Occupation
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact hands Lithuania to Stalin. 17,000 Lithuanians are deported to Siberia in a single week (June 1941). The elected government is dissolved. Independence, won only 22 years earlier, is extinguished overnight.
Second Soviet Occupation
46 years under Soviet rule. Over 280,000 Lithuanians are deported to Siberia and Central Asia. The Forest Brothers wage a guerrilla resistance until the mid-1950s — the longest anti-Soviet insurgency in Europe. The nation survives, but at enormous human cost.
The Pattern Continues
Georgia (2008). Crimea (2014). Eastern Ukraine (2014–2022). Full-scale Ukraine invasion (2022). Russia has invaded its neighbors four times in 16 years. Kaliningrad — the most militarized zone in Europe — is 35 km from the Lithuanian border.
Same Pattern, Different Response
| Dimension | France | Lithuania |
|---|---|---|
| Invasions | 3 wars in 70 years | 3 occupations in 195 years |
| Post-liberation response | Nuclear weapons program | Join NATO, hope for the best |
| Current deterrence | 300 warheads — unquestioned | 36 AMRAAMs — dependent on allies |
| Defense spending (peak) | 5.44% GDP | ~2.5% GDP |
| Result | 65 years of absolute sovereignty | Sovereignty contingent on alliance decisions |
“France decided that three wars were enough. Lithuania has endured worse and longer — and has yet to make the same decision.”
Same Logic, Different Technology
France's deterrent was never about destroying Germany. It was about making war unthinkable — about ensuring that the cost of invasion would always exceed any conceivable gain. A nuclear arsenal made the calculation simple: attack France, lose Paris; but also lose Berlin, Moscow, and everything in between. No rational actor takes that trade.
Lithuania does not need nuclear weapons to achieve the same logic. Autonomous drone swarms, AI-guided defense systems, and distributed strike capabilities can impose the same cost-calculation on an aggressor. A fleet of 50,000 domestically produced drones — each capable of targeting infrastructure, supply lines, and military assets deep inside enemy territory — creates the same deterrent equation: the cost of attacking Lithuania must exceed any possible gain.
The gap between Lithuania's current defense spending (~2.5% GDP) and France's peak investment (5.44% GDP) is exactly what needs filling. That difference — roughly 3% of GDP — is the price of sovereignty. France paid it with nuclear warheads. Lithuania can pay it with autonomous systems, AI, and indigenous defense production. The technology is different. The logic is identical.
“La défense de la France doit être française.”
— Charles de Gaulle
The defense of Lithuania must be Lithuanian.
Sovereignty is a choice.
France made it in 1945. Lithuania can make it now — with different technology but identical resolve. Explore the defense initiatives designed to make Lithuanian sovereignty unquestionable.