Research & Analysis

Analysis

Defense analysis, intelligence briefs, and commentary on Baltic security — drawing lessons from live conflicts and applying them to Lithuania's defense posture.

Analysis

First Lessons from the Iran War for Lithuanian Defense

Three days into the US-Israel campaign against Iran, the war is rewriting core assumptions about modern conflict. The lessons for Lithuania's defense are urgent: interceptor math is broken, GPS denial is real, and decentralization is survival.

  • Coalition interceptor stocks depleting 2x faster than planned — 10 days instead of 20
  • GPS jamming in the Strait of Hormuz is degrading JDAMs, cruise missiles, and drone ops
  • Iran's decentralized C2 survived 3 days of coalition strikes with operational tempo intact
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