Press & Media

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

BALTIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE LAUNCHES COMPREHENSIVE DEFENSE STRATEGY FOR LITHUANIA
Independent Research Proposes French-Style Deterrence Model for Baltic Security

VILNIUS, Lithuania — February 3, 2026

The Baltic Defense Initiative (BDI) today publicly launched a comprehensive defense research platform proposing a fundamental shift in Lithuanian defense strategy — one modeled on France's post-WWII commitment to sovereign deterrence.

THE PROPOSAL

Lithuania's current defense posture relies heavily on NATO collective defense, with limited autonomous capability. BDI proposes a paradigm shift: investing in autonomous defense capabilities at the same proportion of GDP that France committed to its nuclear deterrence program — using modern technologies like AI, autonomous systems, and drone warfare instead of nuclear weapons.

"After three devastating wars with Germany, France committed to ensuring its sovereignty would never be questioned again," said Dr. Thiébaut Devergranne, BDI founder and former legal counsel at France's Prime Minister defense apparatus (SGDSN). "Lithuania faces a similar strategic imperative. The difference is that today's technology — drones, autonomous systems, AI — makes meaningful deterrence achievable for a nation of 2.8 million people."

11 CONCRETE INITIATIVES

1. DETER RUSSIA WITH MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION DOCTRINE
Apply France's Cold War nuclear deterrence doctrine to conventional weapons. Develop 500,000+ autonomous strike platforms and 9,000 guided missiles ensuring any aggressor would suffer devastating consequences. €6.4B over 5 years (1.8% of GDP) — same as France's nuclear investment.

2. MAKE OCCUPATION UNBEARABLE (TRAIN 8,000 SNIPERS)
Build a force of 8,000 precision shooters across military and civilian reserves. Ukraine's "Ghosts of Bakhmut" achieved 558 confirmed kills with a 20-person team. Finland embeds snipers in every company. €63-87M investment — less than two air defense batteries.

3. NEGOTIATE FRANCE'S NUCLEAR UMBRELLA
Seven European nations have expressed interest in hosting French nuclear forces as insurance against American withdrawal. France is the only EU nuclear power with complete autonomy. Macron explicitly offered extended deterrence discussions to EU partners.

4. CONSCRIPT EVERYONE (BUILD 300,000 TRAINED RESERVES)
Lithuania conscripts only 3,500 people per year — grossly inadequate for a country 35km from a hostile border. Finland has 900,000 trained reserves from 5.5 million people. Target: 25,000-30,000 conscripts/year, building 300,000+ reserves.

5. BUILD THE TECH TO INTERCEPT ATTACK DRONES AT 1/1000TH THE COST
Deploy autonomous drone swarms to intercept Shahed attacks at €3,000-5,000 per kill versus €4 million for Patriot. Ukraine's Wild Hornets achieve 68-90% success rates. By July 2025, 9 out of 10 Ukrainian Shahed kills came from interceptor drones.

6. BUY WEAPONS IN 7 DAYS, NOT 18 MONTHS
Reform procurement to enable 7-day contracting. Ukraine's DOT-Chain delivers weapons in 10 days average; traditional NATO procurement takes 18-24 months. In high-intensity conflict, equipment that arrives late is equipment that doesn't matter.

7. MASS-PRODUCE €350 KAMIKAZE DRONES
Mass-produce kamikaze drones at scale Ukraine has proven in combat — 10,000 units monthly at €350 per drone. Ukraine produced 4 million drones in 2025. €350 per FPV drone vs €4-10M per destroyed tank.

8. MOBILIZE 1.3 MILLION DIASPORA FOR DEFENSE
Lithuania has 1.3 million citizens abroad — nearly a third of the nation. Ukraine's United24 raised $1.4B from diaspora. Lithuania's diaspora represents €100M+ annual fundraising potential, 15,000+ defense-relevant professionals, and advocacy networks in 30+ NATO capitals.

9. DEPLOY ACOUSTIC SENSOR NETWORKS
When Russian electronic warfare jams counter-battery radar, acoustic sensors continue operating. Sound cannot be jammed. Deploy 150 acoustic sensor stations achieving 10km artillery localization and passive drone detection immune to electronic warfare.

10. ESTABLISH NATIONAL DEFENSE INSTITUTE (IHEDN MODEL)
France's IHEDN has educated 100,000+ civilian leaders on defense over 90 years. Establish a similar institute educating 150+ senior civilian leaders annually on national defense — creating a defense-literate elite across business, government, and media.

11. LAUNCH BALTIC SPY SATELLITES
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania jointly launch 6 reconnaissance satellites — ending dependence on 3-5 day NATO imagery sharing delays. €150-200M total, split three ways (~€50-70M per nation). Sovereign satellites deliver in under 2 hours.

KEY FINDINGS

• Current Gap: Lithuania's defense is overly reliant on external help with no viable Plan B
• The Model: France's deterrence investment (as % of GDP) applied to modern autonomous systems
• The Goal: Guarantee unbearable costs to any aggressor — securing sovereignty through strength, not dependency
• The Research: 200 defense initiatives covering drones, naval systems, air defense, strike capabilities, and more

WHY NOW

Recent advances have fundamentally transformed what small nations can achieve:
• FPV drones costing €500 can destroy vehicles worth €1M+
• Ukraine has demonstrated that mass-produced simple systems can counter conventional military advantages
• AI and autonomous systems enable force multiplication previously impossible for small nations

ABOUT THE FOUNDER

Dr. Thiébaut Devergranne served six years within the French Prime Minister's defense apparatus (SGDSN) as legal counsel on national security matters, participating in G7/G8 negotiations. Having lived in Lithuania for over a decade, he witnessed the gap between France's defense structure and Lithuania's current posture.

ABOUT BDI

The Baltic Defense Initiative is an independent, nonpartisan research organization based in Vilnius. All research is evidence-based, drawing from battlefield-proven systems and strategies. BDI is not affiliated with any government, political party, or defense contractor.

CONTACT

Dr. Thiébaut Devergranne
Founder, Baltic Defense Initiative
https://balticdefenseinitiative.com/contact

###